IS PETRAEUS TOO BIG TO FAIL? – AT 8:53 A.M. ET:  That's an intriguing question, asked this morning by The Politico.  And is raises questions about 2012:

President Barack Obama’s new Afghanistan commander was confirmed on a 99 to 0 vote Wednesday, a rare moment of bipartisan unanimity in the Senate — and a reminder of what a formidable partner Obama has brought into his most sensitive area of foreign policy.

It’s an old adage of management and politics that you shouldn’t hire anyone you can’t fire, but Obama did just that, bringing in Gen. David Petraeus, America’s most acclaimed and best-connected officer, to lead a war effort to which the White House has grown increasingly committed. And while the sacking of his predecessor, Gen. Stanley McChrystal, named “the runaway general” by Rolling Stone, provoked inevitable comparison to President Harry Truman’s dismissal of Gen. Douglas MacArthur, the comparison was to the wrong general.

McChrystal, despite his position, was an obscure special operations figure with no political profile. Petraeus, by contrast, has a deep well of personal popularity and Beltway connections. If he chose to, he could pose a genuine challenge to Obama, should they at some point differ on the course of the war.

COMMENT:  That is correct, and, unlike Douglas MacArthur, Petraeus is politically astute and comes off as modest, not arrogant and theatrical, two characteristics that did not endear MacArthur to other high-ranking officers, and certainly didn't endear him to Harry Truman.

There has been an undercurrent of buzz about Petraeus in 2012.  I think it's very much a long shot.  For him to run against a man who's been his own commander-in-chief, as George McClellan did when he ran against Lincoln in 1864, would require not only a split, but a split based on high principle.  Petraeus would pretty much have to suggest, if not say openly, that Obama was endangering the country.

As an alternative, consider that there's an old Mafia proverb: "Keep your friends close and your enemies closer."   Some speculated that Obama was invoking that wisdom when he hired Hillary Clinton to be secretary of state.  Keep her in the tent.  That could be his thinking behind the Petraeus appointment:  Keep a potential competitor in the household employ.  And...I brought his up before, don't ignore the possibility of an Obama/Petraeus ticket for 2012.  Petraeus has been called a Rockefeller Republican, but that ain't too far away from being a moderate Democrat, and Obama may need one.

You know, this could be the beginning of a beautiful friendship.  Ah, "Casablanca."

July 1, 2010